Hello Bloxters! And welcome to my follow-up analysis of the BTCUSD pair!
You can check out my first BTCUSD analysis (here).
Let’s get straight to it.
DISCLAIMER: Please note that this is NOT a buy/sell recomendation, nor a signal, nor an investment suggestion. This is purely for educational purposes and opinion sharing. I will not be held responsible for any consecuences caused by misenterpreting my analysis. Eventho my methods are somewhat unique and unorthodox, my goal here is not to teach you how to do technical analysis, nor to disclose my analysis/trading strategies, but to present to you my general view of the market situation and prediction (and have some fun while at it).
This is the quick overview of the analysis came up with the last time, when BTC was at $9200:
What we can observe today, it looks like this:
That’s what I like to call – on point. Pure magic. Or is it? Or is everything really just so easy and in plain sight? You be the judge of that.
If we further analyze the current market situation (circled in blue) in hope of predicting the next move, we get the following information – Moon. Let’s see why.
Here’s a zoom-in of the circled area in 4h chart
So what happened here was price bouncing off the Resistance line 2, starting a downtrend move with lower-lows and lower-highs, breaking the Support/Resistance line @ 8000, breaking another resistance line @ 6700, and dropping to reach my Ultimate support zone @ 6100. What happened there, is a so-called »fake break-out«, or a »stophunt«. You may, with the intention of creating a heavily bearish illusion, induce more sellers, minimize the number of buyers, and cause a general paranoia before swiftly changing direction.
What if I told you that’s exactly what I predicted would happen?
This is a picture made on May 23rd. The only thing that didn’t happen is the re-test scenario. That was a bit off. Other than that, it’s pretty much on point. I’ve written down in my first BTCUSD analysis, when price surged from $7.000 to $9600 and everyone was jumping and screaming »MOON«:
»…what I would expect is yet another drop in price, headed toward the $6.000 – $6.500 area (with a possible $1.000 stophunt to the low).«
This all happened on June 20th, when price suddenly plummeted from $6.800 to $5.800 in 4 days time, seen here:
This is where we are now:
The wedge pattern played out nicely, with the bearish breakout as predicted.
So what’s my prediction from here on? Just like before – moon. Let’s see why…
Pulling out the Fibonacci tool on the last high-to-low, we see that the price hit and bounced back to my favourite Fibo zone – 1.272. Twice. That tells me that this zone is really strong, and would require a LOT of force to break.
What I usually notice after such a wedge breakout is a bullish run, and I can see it happening already. Price hit AND bounced my Fibo 1.272 zone, while re-testing my ultimate drop zone (black line) as well. We see some consolidation and price bouncing off between my resistance line and 1.271 fibo, but I don’t expect it to stay there for much longer. As you can tell from the next picture, my best bet would be price hitting the $8.100 area where my resistance line is, and after some struggle with the resistance there, continue up towards the $9800 mark to challenge the previous high (blue curved line).
And to be more precise:
BUT… Should we see a third retest of my Ultimate drop line, there will be quite a possibility of breaking it and closing below it. I don’t think I have to explain what that means, right? But for now, everything looks bullish for me.
Hope you liked this analysis, should you have any questions you can always find us in out Telegram group: t.me/Blox_Product_Discussion
Wish you all the best with your investments, see you in my next TA! And remember:
Get better. Get Blox.
(Contributed by the Blox Ambassador, Danijel Miletic)